Question 1

Which of the following describes the 'specificity' of a test for a certain disease?

Accepted Answer

A)  The probability that you are likely to have a specific disease, without any knowledge of your test results.
B)  The proportion of people who correctly test positive when they actually have the disease.
C)  The proportion of people who correctly test negative when they don't have the disease.
D)  All of the above.E) A) and D)
F) B) and C)

Question 2

Which of the following lottery combinations (6 numbers from 1-30, no repeats allowed)  is the least likely to come up as a winning ticket?

Accepted Answer

A)  2, 10, 23, 27, 30, 11
B)  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
C)  11, 19, 14, 12, 17, 15
D)  All of the above are equally unlikely.E) A) and D)
F) All of the above

Question 3

If the bookmakers who run sports betting operations were to set fair odds, so that both the house and those placing bets had expected values of zero, then the probabilities for all of the players should sum to 1, but they don't.Do they sum to a higher or lower value, and why?

Accepted Answer

For the bookmakers to make money, they s...

Question 4

What can happen when a physical situation lends itself to computing a relative-frequency probability, but people ignore that information and go with their 'intuition'?

Accepted Answer

this can lead to incorrect thinking and to incorrect probabilities, or to incorrect interpretation of probabilities.

Question 5

In what sense is a coincidence not an improbable event?

Accepted Answer

it is not improbable that some...

Question 6

Explain what it means for a test result to be a false positive.

Accepted Answer

you don't have the d...

Question 7

What is meant by a test result that is a false positive?

Accepted Answer

A)  You have the disease but the test results were negative.
B)  You don't have the disease but the test results were positive.
C)  You test positive for a different disease than the one they thought you had.
D)  None of the above.E) B) and D)
F) None of the above

Question 8

Do you agree with the following statement regarding sequences of tosses of a fair coin? Explain why or why not."The sequence HHHHTH doesn't represent the fairness of the coin, and therefore is not as likely to occur as sequences such as HTHTTH."

Accepted Answer

No; each sequence of 6 tosses ...

Question 9

Which of the following sequences of six tosses of a fair coin is more likely (if either): HTHTTH, or HHHTTT? Explain your answer.

Accepted Answer

These sequences are ...

Question 10

The probability of a coincidence happening may be __________ than you think.

Accepted Answer

The answer of The probability of a coincidence happening may...

Question 11

About how many people would need to be gathered together to be at least 50% sure that two of them will share the same birthday (the same day of the year, not necessarily the same year) ?

Accepted Answer

A)  4
B)  23
C)  183
D)  2,300 or moreE) A) and C)
F) B) and C)

Question 12

Suppose a lottery game has a 1/1000 chance of winning for each ticket, and the prize is $1,000.How much should you be willing to pay for a ticket in order to have a positive expected value?

Accepted Answer

less than ...

Question 13

Which of the following beliefs are examples of the gambler's fallacy?

Accepted Answer

A)  Random events are self-correcting.(For example if you are losing, believing that your luck is about to turn around.) 
B)  The long-run frequency of an event should apply in the short term as well.(For example, "He's a 90% free throw shooter, and he's already missed 2 out of 3 tonight.There's no way he's going to miss this next one.") 
C)  Knowledge of one event will help predict the next event, even though the events are independent.(For example, you may hear someone at the craps table saying to the person rolling the dice, "You're on a roll! Don't stop now!") 
D)  All of the above.E) A) and D)
F) A) and C)

Question 14

What is meant by the 'sensitivity' of a test for a certain disease?

Accepted Answer

The proportion of pe...

Question 15

Research shows that people tend to "detect" patterns even where none exist, and to __________ the degree of clustering of outcomes in sports events, as in other sequential data (for example the chance of being on a shooting streak in basketball).

Accepted Answer

The answer of Research shows that people tend to "detect"...

Question 16

In which of the following situations would the gambler's fallacy not apply?

Accepted Answer

A)  When the events are not independent.
B)  When knowledge of one outcome affects the probability of the next one.
C)  Both a)  and b) .
D)  Neither a)  nor b) ; the gambler's fallacy holds whenever gambling is going on.That's how casinos stay in business.E) A) and B)
F) A) and C)

Question 17

Explain how a misinterpretation of a coincidence could impact a town that is experiencing an unusually high rate of cancer, compared to the rest of the country.

Accepted Answer

People may automatically think there is something wrong with the water, soil, air, or a variety of things, and start to panic, sue companies, get media attention, or pressure the government to get involved, all without proper substantiation of an actual problem.Any Rare event is going to happen to someone, somewhere, sometime.

Question 18

A(n) __________ is a surprising concurrence of events, perceived as meaningfully related, with no apparent causal connection.

Accepted Answer

coincidence

Question 19

What is meant by the 'specificity' of a test for a certain disease?

Accepted Answer

The proportion of pe...

Question 20

Which of the following coincidences reflects a truly improbable event, if interpreted properly?

Accepted Answer

A)  My next-door neighbor won the lottery! I was only one house away from becoming rich!
B)  Wow, what are the chances that I'd be on the same flight as Bill Cosby? Unbelievable!
C)  I heard there's a guy in Pennsylvania who won the lottery twice; that lottery must be rigged.
D)  None of the above.E) None of the above
F) B) and C)

Exam 17: When Intuition Differs From Relative Frequency

Which of the following describes the 'specificity' of a test for a certain disease?

Correct Answer
verified

Which of the following lottery combinations (6 numbers from 1-30, no repeats allowed) is the least likely to come up as a winning ticket?

Correct Answer
verified

If the bookmakers who run sports betting operations were to set fair odds, so that both the house and those placing bets had expected values of zero, then the probabilities for all of the players should sum to 1, but they don't.Do they sum to a higher or lower value, and why?

Correct Answer
verified
For the bookmakers to make money, they s...
View Answer

What can happen when a physical situation lends itself to computing a relative-frequency probability, but people ignore that information and go with their 'intuition'?

Correct Answer
verified
this can lead to incorrect thinking and to incorrect probabilities, or to incorrect interpretation of probabilities.

In what sense is a coincidence not an improbable event?

Correct Answer
verified
it is not improbable that some...
View Answer

Explain what it means for a test result to be a false positive.

Correct Answer
verified
you don't have the d...
View Answer

What is meant by a test result that is a false positive?

Correct Answer
verified

Do you agree with the following statement regarding sequences of tosses of a fair coin? Explain why or why not."The sequence HHHHTH doesn't represent the fairness of the coin, and therefore is not as likely to occur as sequences such as HTHTTH."

Correct Answer
verified
No; each sequence of 6 tosses ...
View Answer

Which of the following sequences of six tosses of a fair coin is more likely (if either): HTHTTH, or HHHTTT? Explain your answer.

Correct Answer
verified
These sequences are ...
View Answer

The probability of a coincidence happening may be __________ than you think.

Correct Answer
verified

About how many people would need to be gathered together to be at least 50% sure that two of them will share the same birthday (the same day of the year, not necessarily the same year) ?

Correct Answer
verified

Suppose a lottery game has a 1/1000 chance of winning for each ticket, and the prize is $1,000.How much should you be willing to pay for a ticket in order to have a positive expected value?

Correct Answer
verified
less than ...
View Answer

Which of the following beliefs are examples of the gambler's fallacy?

Correct Answer
verified

What is meant by the 'sensitivity' of a test for a certain disease?

Correct Answer
verified
The proportion of pe...
View Answer

Research shows that people tend to "detect" patterns even where none exist, and to __________ the degree of clustering of outcomes in sports events, as in other sequential data (for example the chance of being on a shooting streak in basketball).

Correct Answer
verified

In which of the following situations would the gambler's fallacy not apply?

Correct Answer
verified

Explain how a misinterpretation of a coincidence could impact a town that is experiencing an unusually high rate of cancer, compared to the rest of the country.

A(n) __________ is a surprising concurrence of events, perceived as meaningfully related, with no apparent causal connection.

Correct Answer
verified
coincidence

What is meant by the 'specificity' of a test for a certain disease?

Correct Answer
verified
The proportion of pe...
View Answer

Which of the following coincidences reflects a truly improbable event, if interpreted properly?

Correct Answer
verified

Exam 17: When Intuition Differs From Relative Frequency

Which of the following describes the 'specificity' of a test for a certain disease?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Which of the following lottery combinations (6 numbers from 1-30, no repeats allowed) is the least likely to come up as a winning ticket?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

If the bookmakers who run sports betting operations were to set fair odds, so that both the house and those placing bets had expected values of zero, then the probabilities for all of the players should sum to 1, but they don't.Do they sum to a higher or lower value, and why?

Correct AnswerverifiedFor the bookmakers to make money, they s...View AnswerShow Answer

What can happen when a physical situation lends itself to computing a relative-frequency probability, but people ignore that information and go with their 'intuition'?

Correct Answerverifiedthis can lead to incorrect thinking and to incorrect probabilities, or to incorrect interpretation of probabilities.

In what sense is a coincidence not an improbable event?

Correct Answerverifiedit is not improbable that some...View AnswerShow Answer

Explain what it means for a test result to be a false positive.

Correct Answerverifiedyou don't have the d...View AnswerShow Answer

What is meant by a test result that is a false positive?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Do you agree with the following statement regarding sequences of tosses of a fair coin? Explain why or why not."The sequence HHHHTH doesn't represent the fairness of the coin, and therefore is not as likely to occur as sequences such as HTHTTH."

Correct AnswerverifiedNo; each sequence of 6 tosses ...View AnswerShow Answer

Which of the following sequences of six tosses of a fair coin is more likely (if either): HTHTTH, or HHHTTT? Explain your answer.

Correct AnswerverifiedThese sequences are ...View AnswerShow Answer

The probability of a coincidence happening may be __________ than you think.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

About how many people would need to be gathered together to be at least 50% sure that two of them will share the same birthday (the same day of the year, not necessarily the same year) ?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Suppose a lottery game has a 1/1000 chance of winning for each ticket, and the prize is $1,000.How much should you be willing to pay for a ticket in order to have a positive expected value?

Correct Answerverifiedless than ...View AnswerShow Answer

Which of the following beliefs are examples of the gambler's fallacy?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

What is meant by the 'sensitivity' of a test for a certain disease?

Correct AnswerverifiedThe proportion of pe...View AnswerShow Answer

Research shows that people tend to "detect" patterns even where none exist, and to __________ the degree of clustering of outcomes in sports events, as in other sequential data (for example the chance of being on a shooting streak in basketball).

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

In which of the following situations would the gambler's fallacy not apply?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Explain how a misinterpretation of a coincidence could impact a town that is experiencing an unusually high rate of cancer, compared to the rest of the country.

A(n) __________ is a surprising concurrence of events, perceived as meaningfully related, with no apparent causal connection.

Correct Answerverifiedcoincidence

What is meant by the 'specificity' of a test for a certain disease?

Correct AnswerverifiedThe proportion of pe...View AnswerShow Answer

Which of the following coincidences reflects a truly improbable event, if interpreted properly?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified
For the bookmakers to make money, they s...
View Answer

Correct Answer
verified
this can lead to incorrect thinking and to incorrect probabilities, or to incorrect interpretation of probabilities.

Correct Answer
verified
it is not improbable that some...
View Answer

Correct Answer
verified
you don't have the d...
View Answer

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified
No; each sequence of 6 tosses ...
View Answer

Correct Answer
verified
These sequences are ...
View Answer

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified
less than ...
View Answer

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified
The proportion of pe...
View Answer

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified
coincidence

Correct Answer
verified
The proportion of pe...
View Answer

Correct Answer
verified