Question 1

The __________ of a test for a certain disease is the proportion of people who correctly test positive when they actually have the disease.

Accepted Answer

The answer of The __________ of a test for a...

Question 2

What two conditions cause a test to have a relatively high rate of false positives?

Accepted Answer

1) the base rate is ...

Question 3

In what sense is a coincidence an improbable event?

Accepted Answer

it is improbable that the even...

Question 4

Which probability is larger for a randomly selected woman from the general population: The probability of having breast cancer given that the woman has a positive mammogram, or the probability of a positive mammogram given that the woman has breast cancer?

Accepted Answer

A)  The probability of having breast cancer given that the woman has a positive mammogram.
B)  The probability of a positive mammogram given that the woman has breast cancer.
C)  The probabilities are the same.
D)  Not enough information to tell.E) None of the above
F) All of the above

Question 5

Which of the following problems can arise when intuition differs from relative frequency?

Accepted Answer

A)  Always thinking that a coincidence has a low chance of occurring.
B)  The gambler's fallacy.
C)  Confusion of the inverse.
D)  All of the above.E) B) and C)
F) A) and C)

Question 6

How does the relative frequency interpretation of probability differ from the personal probability interpretation, in terms of variability in the results?

Accepted Answer

acceptable answers include
1)Personal p...

Question 7

Each possible six-number combination of lottery numbers has an equal (and very unlikely) chance of winning.However, there is a possible edge you can get if you think about people's betting behaviors and the chances of having to split the money or not, if you do pick the winning combination.Give an example of a set of numbers that might give you an edge in that case.

Accepted Answer

people tend to bet on birthdays, so the ...

Question 8

Which of the following is needed in order to determine the probability of a positive test result being accurate?

Accepted Answer

A)  The base rate.
B)  The sensitivity of the test.
C)  The specificity of the test.
D)  All of the above.E) A) and B)
F) All of the above

Question 9

Which of the following would be true if people made decisions based on maximizing their expected monetary return?

Accepted Answer

A)  People wouldn't buy lottery tickets.
B)  People wouldn't buy insurance.
C)  People wouldn't participate in sports betting.
D)  All of the above.E) A) and B)
F) B) and C)

Question 10

When you experience a coincidence, which of the following interpretations is appropriate?

Accepted Answer

A)  If an event has a million to one chance, it is expected to happen to 290 people in the U.S.in a given day, on average (because the U.S.population is 290 million) .
B)  It is not unlikely that something surprising will happen to someone, somewhere, someday.
C)  There is a big difference between the probability of a rare event happening to someone somewhere, and the probability of a rare event happening to a specifically named individual.
D)  All of the above.E) B) and D)
F) B) and C)

Exam 17: When Intuition Differs From Relative Frequency

How does the relative frequency interpretation of probability differ from the personal probability interpretation, in terms of variability in the results?

Correct Answer
verified
acceptable answers include
1)Personal p...
View Answer

Which of the following problems can arise when intuition differs from relative frequency?

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified
people tend to bet on birthdays, so the ...
View Answer

Which probability is larger for a randomly selected woman from the general population: The probability of having breast cancer given that the woman has a positive mammogram, or the probability of a positive mammogram given that the woman has breast cancer?

Correct Answer
verified

What two conditions cause a test to have a relatively high rate of false positives?

Correct Answer
verified
1) the base rate is ...
View Answer

When you experience a coincidence, which of the following interpretations is appropriate?

Correct Answer
verified

Which of the following is needed in order to determine the probability of a positive test result being accurate?

Correct Answer
verified

In what sense is a coincidence an improbable event?

Correct Answer
verified
it is improbable that the even...
View Answer

The __________ of a test for a certain disease is the proportion of people who correctly test positive when they actually have the disease.

Correct Answer
verified

Which of the following would be true if people made decisions based on maximizing their expected monetary return?

Correct Answer
verified

Exam 17: When Intuition Differs From Relative Frequency

How does the relative frequency interpretation of probability differ from the personal probability interpretation, in terms of variability in the results?

Correct Answerverifiedacceptable answers include 1)Personal p...View AnswerShow Answer

Which of the following problems can arise when intuition differs from relative frequency?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Correct Answerverifiedpeople tend to bet on birthdays, so the ...View AnswerShow Answer

Which probability is larger for a randomly selected woman from the general population: The probability of having breast cancer given that the woman has a positive mammogram, or the probability of a positive mammogram given that the woman has breast cancer?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

What two conditions cause a test to have a relatively high rate of false positives?

Correct Answerverified1) the base rate is ...View AnswerShow Answer

When you experience a coincidence, which of the following interpretations is appropriate?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Which of the following is needed in order to determine the probability of a positive test result being accurate?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

In what sense is a coincidence an improbable event?

Correct Answerverifiedit is improbable that the even...View AnswerShow Answer

The __________ of a test for a certain disease is the proportion of people who correctly test positive when they actually have the disease.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Which of the following would be true if people made decisions based on maximizing their expected monetary return?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Correct Answer
verified
acceptable answers include
1)Personal p...
View Answer

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified
people tend to bet on birthdays, so the ...
View Answer

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified
1) the base rate is ...
View Answer

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified
it is improbable that the even...
View Answer

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified